An Unorthodox Approach To 76ers Title Contention

Simulating one bizarre way the Sixers can vault themselves into title contention.

First, let’s look at the Points Per Possession chart:


Obviously this is based off 40 games, doesn’t factor in strength of schedule or long-term injuries, but you get a good sense of who the league’s best and worst teams are.

Here’s my tiered rankings:

Tier 1 — Title Contenders

Tier 2 — Cinderellas

Tier 3 — Fringe Teams

Tier 4 — Lottery Teams

Tier 5 — Tankers

Take a look at the Sixers pairings. Note that there’s tons of overlap in these minutes, but it still gives you a general sense of which pairs are found in the best 5-man lineups.


Observations:

NBA: Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

One thing I can’t ignore is that it seems like the Sixers have a fundamentally flawed roster.

1) JJ Redick is the engine of the Sixers offense, but the flat-tire of their defense.

The Dribble-Hand Off is one of the most common offensive weapons used by the Sixers, but aside from that action, Brett Brown’s “motion offense” usually renders sub-par results in the halfcourt.

Over the past few months, there’s been a distinct whiff from the locker room that the Sixers are unsure of their offensive identity. Just think about the “Big 3” as offensive counterparts:

2) Joel Embiid excels in the post when he’s not double-teamed.

The problem is that Simmons and Butler don’t space the floor enough around Embiid.

3) Jimmy Butler wants to run Pick-and-Roll and Isolation sets.

Joel Embiid is not a natural role man and the analytics staff is allergic to isolation sets

4) Ben Simmons is stationed in the dunker’s spot, looking for duck-ins.

Some of these have remedies, like having Simmons set screens for the shooters, thereby forcing his defender to play tighter and improve the spacing.

Other issues, like Redick’s defense, don’t have an obvious solution (aside from not re-signing).

While suggesting ways to improve the team can be fruitful, this article will focus on players we can add over the next 6 months that will give the Sixers a legitimate shot at Tier 1. If you’re interested in the former, check out some of my articles on the subject:


Courtesy of Cleaning the Glass, I present the Sixers Salary Sheet:


Assuming:

  • Butler opts-out of his contract
  • Sixers accept Fultz’s Option
  • Sixers Renounce all FAs (Chandler, Redick, Muscala, TJ, Amir) and decline Patton

They would have approximately $19.8M to spend in Free Agency.

If they trade Fultz for an expiring contract:

They would have roughly $29M to spend.

So what is the best way to spend $19.8M or $29M? First, let’s look at the roster:


Two-way players are more likely to find success in the playoffs, when teams employ aggressive matchup hunting and try to exploit every advantage. The Sixers only have three such players — Simmons, Embiid, and Butler.

Compare that to Eastern Conference powers:

Raptors

Bucks

A striking difference is that Raptors and Bucks players actually accentuate each other. Proper spacing, complementary play-styles, and less weak-links in their switch-heavy defenses allow these players effort to be greater than the sum of its parts.

Here’s the salary sheet without Fultz:

Note: $28.7M

Wing Candidates

NBA: Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Big Candidates

NBA: Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

If the Sixers trade Fultz, then they’d be looking for a backup PG:

PG Candidates

There are several FA’s names I’ve heard circulated in Sixers chats that I intentionally left off each list due to-major concerns over the player’s ability/fit, I’ll do a brief list here:

Let’s take a quick look at the league’s best playoffs lineups:

S. Curry | K.Thompson | K. Durant | Dr. Green | D. Cousins

K. Lowry | D. Green | K. Leonard | P. Siakam | S. Ibaka

E. Bledsoe | M. Brogdon | K. Middleton | G. Antetokounmpo | B. Lopez

Breaking it down, their roster makeup is strikingly similar:

  • Their PGs can shoot, defend, and facilitate at a high-level.
  • They have more than one 3&D wing
  • They have two-way Point Forwards who are tremendous defenders
  • They have two-way centers who can shoot the ball
NBA: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s project this on to the Sixers:

  • PG who can shoot, defend, and facilitate — NO
  • More than one 3&D wing — NO
  • Two-Way PF who can handle the ball — NO (but could be Simmons)
  • Two-Way Center who can shoot — NO (Embiid 31.7% career)

I’ve thought about this for a long while, and the method I strongly believe yields the Sixers best chance at title contention goes as follows:

  1. Have Jimmy Butler play PG
  2. Sign two 3&D Wings
  3. Have Simmons play Point Forward in half-court (high-post passing/screen setting/cuts/lobs)
  4. Have Embiid practice threes religiously

This strategy is necessitated by the lack of FA point guards and the spacing issues caused by Simmons as the primary ball-handler.

Calling Simmons a Point Forward isn’t a magical panacea that will fix the spacing issues, but it does involve other duties.

I think Simmons would be categorically more effective in halfcourt offense if his duties were primarily:

1) Constantly setting screens off-ball for shooters

2) As the roll-man in traditional Pick-and-Roll and Dribble-Hand-Off sets

3) Threatening back-cuts of his off-ball screens, catching many lobs

4) Distributing from the high-post in a 4-out offense

This would also allow Butler to play more point-of-attack defense, more traditional Pick-and-Roll sets on offense, and take advantage of his underrated passing skills, which has been woefully absent in his time with the Sixers thus far.

Following those guideline might yield you a team like this:

PG: Jimmy Butler

Wing: Danny Green

Wing: Al-Farouq Aminu

Point Forward: Ben Simmons

Center: Joel Embiid

Do they have enough ball-handling? Butler/Simmons, check.

How about shooting? Green/Butler/Aminu, passable. (Buy NOAH)

Transition? Yes.

Defense? Oh my god.


Look at how this lineup matches up against the league’s most dynamic rosters:

vs. GSW

Butler — Curry

Da. Green — Thompson

Simmons — Durant

Aminu — Green

Embiid — Cousins

vs. MIL

Butler — Bledsoe

Da. Green — Brogdon

Aminu — Middleton

Simmons — Antetokounmpo

Embiid — Lopez

vs. BOS

Butler — Irving

Da. Green — Smart/Hayward

Aminu — Morris/Brown

Simmons — Tatum

Embiid — Horford

I think this team, while quite unorthodox, would matchup well versus almost any team, as opposed to the current Sixers, who matchup well vs. a tiny fraction of the Tier 1 & 2 teams.

Since these teams are so switch-heavy, the initial matchups are not hugely important and certainly are mutable.

The Sham Sports Capulator allows you to get the most realistic cap figures, factoring in minimum roster charges, draft picks, exceptions, and cap holds. This would be my complete roster, and ownership doesn’t even need to pay the luxury tax until 2020-21:


Ball-Handlers

  • J. Butler
  • J. Barea
  • B. Simmons

Small Wings

  • D. Green
  • J. Butler
  • L. Shamet
  • Z. Smith

Big Wings

  • Ben Simmons
  • A, Aminu
  • L. Mbah A Moute
  • J. Butler

Rim-Protectors

  • J. Embiid
  • B. Lopez
  • J. Bolden
  • B. Simmons

The Signings:


The current Sixers are particularly strong against unathletic teams like the Jazz and Clippers, but they struggle mightily with other teams who can switch 1-4 and attack their weak guards — like the Raptors, Bucks, and Celtics. Those teams are the modern archetype, so you have to build your roster in a way that you can matchup against athletic teams.

The hypothetical roster above can shape-shift depending on the opponent.

With the continued development of Simmons & Embiid’s games, Brown instituting more of an offensive identity, and more lineup continuity, I think this roster can match up against the league’s elite teams.

from Liberty Ballers – All Posts http://bit.ly/2SKD0VX
via IFTTT

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s