Dirk Koetter is the NFL’s top fourth-down risk taker

Dirk Koetter is the NFL’s top fourth-down risk taker

Posted by Mike Florio on December 4, 2018, 10:58 PM EST

Getty Images

In September, Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter expressed an aversion to rolling the dice on fourth down during a season-opening win over the Saints, explaining that going for it and failing becomes the recipe for getting fired. For Koetter, that was the exception.

According to the NFL, Koetter has the highest rate of going for it on fourth down for all coaches from 2008 through Week 12 of the 2018 season. Koetter and Eagles coach Doug Pederson are the only two who are north of 60 percent.

At the other end of the spectrum are former Colts and Lions coach Jim Caldwell and former Titans and Rams coach Jeff Fisher. The full chart is here.

As Pederson recently explained it to PFT, he constantly thinks about fourth-down scenarios, engaging in the analysis even when watching college games on TV.

“I think what you’re seeing is a mix of gut feeling, a little analytics, and trusting the players,” Pederson said.

It would be a mistake to ignore the numbers, but it also would be a mistake to rely only on the numbers. Plenty of factors go into the decision, and each decision is made quickly in real time. The more scenarios a coach has considered, the greater the chance that a quick and confident will be made every time.

from Philadelphia Eagles – ProFootballTalk https://ift.tt/2RBNMgv


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s