Jimmy Butler trade analysis: Sixers got better, and they can still add another star in free agency | David Murphy

If you were to design the ideal player star to star alongside Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, there are a lot of ways in which he would differ from Jimmy Butler. From his volume-dependent point production to his mediocre three-point shot to his habit of clashing with younger players, the 29-year-old star is hardly the perfect fit for a Sixers team that has less than a year to put the finishing touches on the core it will rely upon for the next half decade. But the one overriding takeaway from the organization’s decision to acquire the disgruntled veteran from the Timberwolves while parting ways with two beloved starters is this: Not only does Butler makes the Sixers better right now, in the midst of a sputtering 8-5 start, but he has the potential to make them a whole lot better come April, by which time the Sixers will need to have experienced a radical transformation in order to compete in an Eastern Conference playoff field that includes powerhouses in Boston and Toronto and an upstart Bucks squad in Milwaukee.

The Sixers can still add another max star

MARK J. TERRILL / AP

Jimmy Butler is headed to Philadelphia.

This is as much about the next move as it is about the current one. At some point, the Sixers were going to arrive at a point where they needed to make decisions on Covington and Saric. As inseparable as Saric may seem to the identity of this team, the odds always seemed to be against him signing an extension here, given the team’s stated goal of adding at least one superstar to the mix. There was always going to be an odd man out, and Saric always seemed like he was going to be it. Simply put, he was going to be worth more to a team that was not already stretched financially and loaded with stars. Covington’s contract, at about $12 million per year, is a good bet to remain reasonable throughout its duration (witness the one-year, $15 million deal signed by Trevor Ariza this offseason). But it was also an obvious contract to move in order to facilitate the addition of external talent.

By trading Covington and Saric, the Sixers have put themselves in a position to add a second max contract next summer, even if they re-sign Butler.

The early reports suggest that the Sixers and Butler are optimistic about reaching a deal this summer. Presumably, this will be for the maximum amount that Butler is eligible to sign under the terms of the current CBA. That’s about four years and $147 million, although the raw numbers are not important right now. The important thing is that the Sixers won’t have to do much heavy lifting to get their payroll to a place where they can afford to add a second max contract free agent next summer.

By my calculations, the Sixers would have about $24 million in room under the cap, with Simmons, Embiid, Butler, Fultz, Landry Shamet, Zhaire Smith and Jonah Bolden under contract. They’d have the ability to free up another $11+ million by trading away Fultz and one of the younger players. That would give them the ability to sign pretty much any elite free agent that was willing to come to Philly.

Here’s a look at the Sixers payroll with a hypothetical Butler extension priced in:

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
Jimmy Butler 20.45 32.7 35.32 38.1 41.19 FA
Joel Embiid 25.5 27.5 29.5 31.6 33.6
Ben Simmons 6.44 8.11 29.5 31.86 34.41 37.16
Markelle Fultz 8.34 9.75 12.29 Ext1 Ext2 Ext3
Wilson Chandler 12.8
Mike Muscala 5
JJ Redick 12.25
Jonah Bolden 1.69 1.7 [1.77] [1.85]
Amir Johnson 2.39
Furkan Korkman 1.74
TJ McConnell 1.6
Landry Shamet 1.7 2 2.09 3.77 5.56
Zhaire Smith 2.61 3.06 3.21 4.92 6.91
Shake Milton
Justin Patton 2.67
Demetrius Jakson
 Total Payroll 105.18 84.82 111.906 110.2913 121.671382  37.16
NBA Salary Cap 101.87 109 118 123.9 130.1 136.6
NBA Luxury Tax 123.73 132 143 150.15 157.6 165.54

Essentially, what the Sixers did was trade in Covington for an upgrade in Butler, and then say goodbye to Saric two years early, while also getting rid of the Jerryd Bayless contract.

The Sixers got that much better defensively

FRANK GUNN / AP

Jimmy Butler contests Kawhi Leonard’s shot earlier this season.

The Sixers have a chance to put one of the league’s elite defensive squads on the floor. That’s significant, especially when you consider that their struggles defending the perimeter have only become more amplified this season.

In that loss to the Nets last week, it was jarring to watch Brooklyn’s ballhandlers getting to the rim at will against a Sixers team that was at a loss to defend Terry Rozier in last year’s conference semifinals. In addition to giving them a player able to create shots for himself in Butler, they get one of the league’s premiere on-the-ball defenders, a guy who certainly will not be benched for T.J. McConnell in a make-or-break postseason game, as Covington was last May.

Don’t take that the wrong way. Covington filled an important role, and was an very good team defender. But Butler, a four-time second-team All-Defensive team member, is a clear upgrade.

It will be interesting to see what Brett Brown does with his lineups. He has the option of simply plugging in Mike Muscala for Saric at the four, but he could also go with a smaller lineup that puts Wilson Chandler on the court, with either Chandler or Ben Simmons guarding the four.

Finding a stretch four becomes a must for the Sixers

YONG KIM / Staff Photographer

The Sixers will need to replace Dario Saric’s skillset at the power forward spot by finding a four who can shoot the ball from beyond.

The Sixers are going to have to add some three-point shooting at some point between now and the playoffs. Butler brings a lot of offensive abilities, particularly with his ability to create his own shot and finish at the rim (relative to Covington). If his three-point percentage was 10 to 20 points higher, he really would be an ideal fit. He has gotten more efficient over the past couple of years, with a .502 effective field goal percentage and a respectable .361 mark from downtown. That’s right around where Covington has been throughout his career. It’s Saric where they lose a crucial skill set without getting any replacement. He really struggled from behind the arc to start the season, but against the Pacers we saw how much different this team looks when it has a four-man on the court who is knocking down shots from long range (Saric hit 6-of-13 in a six-point win over Indiana after starting the year shooting .232 from beyond). We also saw that last year, when Ersan Ilyasova arrived and enabled Brown to have a four-man capable of stretching defenses out even when Saric was on the bench.

That hole is going to be one of the more interesting things to watch with this team in the short-to-medium-term future.

All in all, the price-point of this trade made it a near-no-brainer. The Sixers clearly weren’t going to be able to compete with the Celtics and Raptors without changing the fundamental complexion of this team. Saric and Covington were both valuable but flawed players, especially with regards to Saric’s defense. This move enables them to try to develop a new identity for this season while maintaining their ability to chart whatever course they choose this summer.

It sounds like that course will include Butler. The important thing is that it could also include another star.

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