Sun. 11/11, 8:20 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Dallas-Philadelphia:
1. While Dallas is playing on a short week after losing 28-14 as a four-point home favorite against Tennessee on Monday night, Philadelphia hasn’t played since it defeated Jacksonville 24-18 in London on Oct. 28. The Eagles have capitalized on extra rest in recent seasons, going 16-3 straight up and 12-6-1 against the spread since 2000 when having more than a week off. That mark includes a 37-9 blowout in Dallas last November, when Philly trailed at halftime before outscoring its division rival 30-0 in the second half. Although the lopsided outcome was due in part to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott tossing three interceptions and losing a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, the Eagles were able to put together second-half scoring drives of 90, 85 and 75 yards in that blowout. Dallas mustered six points in a shutout of Philadelphia in the 2017 season finale, but the majority of the Eagles’ starters were rested for that game with the Birds having already locked up the NFC’s top playoff seed.
2. The Eagles have tended to build on success in recent seasons, especially when playing at home. Since Doug Pederson took over as the team’s head coach prior to the 2016 season, Philadelphia has gone 9-1 against the spread at home when coming off an against-the-spread victory (the 10 contests have had an average margin of 19 points per game). Also worth noting is the fact that the Cowboys are 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread under head coach Jason Garrett after having played their previous game on Monday night. In the past four such instances, the Cowboys lost by an average score of 29 to 17.
3. Although a 4-4 straight-up record is a bit of of a disappointment for the first half of a season when a team is coming off a Super Bowl title, it’s worth keeping in mind that this is a franchise that has won 19 of its last 25 games straight up and has been victorious in 13 of its last 16 games at Lincoln Financial Field. When Philly has been favored at home with quarterback Carson Wentz under center, the team has gone 11-3 straight up (9-5 against the spread) while outscoring opponents by an average margin of more than 10 points per game. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are one of five NFL teams (along with the Browns, Raiders, Packers and 49ers) without a road victory this season. In four games away from home in 2018, Dallas has averaged a paltry 13.5 points per game, with more turnovers (eight) than touchdowns (five). Not once have the Cowboys finished a road game this season with more than 17 points.
Pick: Philadelphia -7
Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)